Market Update | US Election Is Too Close To Call, so Expect Market Volatility
It’s too close to call, so sit tight The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is running neck and neck, with Harris seen as slightly ahead after being widely considered the winner of their September debate. A recent CNN poll found Harris leading by a percentage point, coming in at 48% versus Trump’s 47%. […]
Market Update: Christmas in September if Rates Come Down as Expected
SA and US interest rate cuts on the cards in September If all goes well, SA and US borrowers can look forward to an at least 25-basis point (bp) reduction in interest rates, spelling the beginning of a declining interest rate cycle. There are hopes that one or both central banks will announce a bumper […]
Market Update: Magnificent Seven Lose Their Magnificence in July
Magnificent Seven come tumbling down The Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Amazon, Google-parent Alphabet, Nvidia, Facebook-parent Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla) have been responsible for the lion’s share of the US bull market in equities since late 2022. So much so that a new term has made its way into market parlance: “bad breadth”. It refers […]
Market Update: Financial Markets Welcome GNU 2.0 and New Cabinet
GNU 2.0 the best possible outcome for investors South Africa’s second Government of National Unity in three decades heralds good things to come for the country and investors. Financially speaking, it is the best outcome we can hope for in a challenging political environment. Dominated by the ANC and the Democratic Alliance, the GNU 2.0 […]
How the Elections May Impact Markets in the Months Ahead
Investors pin their hopes on an investor-friendly outcome The elections have been and gone, and now we wait to hear the nature of the coalition that the ANC will form after not just losing its majority but only managing to muster a 40% share of the votes. A lot has been written about the potential […]
Market Update: Geopolitical and Economic Risks are on the Rise and Investors are Concerned
What happened in April? For the first time this year, investors got nervous about whether the stock market rally that began in October last year was at risk. Stock market volatility increased, a sure sign of increasing investor concerns. The so-called global fear gauge, the VIX Index, rose to almost 20 in mid-April before retracing […]
Market Update: Will They, Won’t They? The Case for Lower Interest Rates Improved in March.
Light at the end of the tunnel for borrowers – and investors The interest rate hikes central banks implemented over the past two years have been so aggressive that economists have consistently warned central bankers against overdoing it and running the risk of driving economies into recessions that would be exceptionally hard to turn around. […]
Market Update: Initial Investor Vote of Confidence Dissipates in Wake of Budget
Investor sentiment turns sour Investors’ initial vote on the government’s Budget was positive with the rand firming and bond yields declining. But sentiment soon turned negative once the details and ramifications of National Treasury’s decisions were fully digested. Initially the rand strengthened to R18.825 against the dollar, gaining almost half a percent on the perception […]
Market Update: US and SA Markets Diverge on Differing Investor Sentiment
A tale of two economies US stock markets continued to gain momentum as January progressed, reaching successive new record highs in the second half of the month as investor confidence in the central bank’s ability to engineer a soft economic landing and reduce interest rates increased. That contrasted with South Africa, where the Reserve Bank’s […]
Market Update: What Lies Ahead for 2024?
2023 will be defined as the year where predominantly negative global economic expectations never materialised and most stock market analysts and economist forecasters were proved wrong. All eyes were on the impact the steep rise in interest rates would have on the global economy, with recession seen as an inevitable outcome. With equity markets already […]
